Crude oil- WTI oil market seems to be peaked for a while. The recent peak of $126 basis May oil looks to be an interim peak. Smart money- large speculators have closed their long positions. Sudden covid surge in China, sharp rise in US bond yield and dollar index and hope of peace talk between Ukraine and Russia has induced profit taking by bulls. Current correction may be a meaningful correction. Current range is seen at 97-113. Bias is mild bearish. Long term trend is still looking upward. Current dip is an intermission.
Guar and Guar gum- Gum and guar market looks vibrant. After a very long congestion, we have seen price breakout in Sept-Dec. Inventory drawdown and decline in acreage and chances of further acreage loss to cotton and castor may set up a perfect storm like condition for guar once monsoon forecast is out. During last few years guar carry out has reduced from 2-2.10 cr bags to 60-70 lac bags. Roasted guar meal demand is booming and Scandinavia- dairy producing countries are active buyer for RGM. As of now, technical and fundamental factors are in agreement. Short term range for NCDEX May guar is 6200-6600, and range for May gum is 11500-13500.
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