A mimic of repo crisis is underway in US amid liquidity crunch. Area to be watched out are
i) South East ASIA for currency meltdown
ii) Latin America for political and social unrest
iii) Emerging Europe for stagflation
iv) China for monitory and planning dilemma
v) Japan for stimulus addiction
vi) US for repo epilepsy
vii) India and Korea for fiscal and capital flows
viii) Africa for food inflation and social unrest
ix) Baltic for geopolitical instability
x) Nordic for real-estate implosion and
xi) G7 for their indecisiveness and inaction.
We at Paradigm Commodity Advisers’ are sensing some sovereign events of credit default and corporate event probability of Enron moment, Lehman moment, Arab spring moment. Given series of unusual factors combined, FED may be forced to soften its hawkish stand. Current tightening event looks double placebo clinical trial. Rate hike/rate cut, run/ pause/ run, signal towards to be a case for abrupt end of tightening is not out of table.
(this is little complex post. Doubts and queries are welcome in comment box ..would be addressed on Sunday:- Biren Vakil, CEO)
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