Today is Big Event Day for currency market and that big event is: USA CPI data ; market participants are expecting inflation data be little higher than last announcement i.e. 8.8% is expected Vs 8.6%; if numbers being printed as expected than market is preparing to take dollar to another high, since FED Will then push more hard. And if number softens; not a significant improvement can happen so mentioning soften, then also FED will continue with par approach as followed by now; that also will support USD. In short “ Head I won; tail you lost”.
Same time Europe (Germany & France) will also publish their inflation data; neither is on better side of expectation; any significant number deviation will not be spared by market for them. Already Euro hit parity last day; sentiments are particularly against Euro and in-favor of USD; further devaluation EURUSD pair is on the card.
Today’s data day will hit INR too; unfortunate part is that data will be announced post trading as well as banking hours; who have access to overseas markets (NDFs) can take benefit of that movement.
Important levels for respective pair are:
USDINR: 79.473, -0.285, (-0.36%) (NDF): USDINR NDFs in forex made highs of 79.80+ last session; 80+ was on our cards for USDINR but so soon is really soon.
Trading range: 78.90-79.90/80.10
EURINR: 79.7940, +0.0500, (+0.06%): Today is critical for EURO; will check its trading range post todays data event.
GBPINR: 94.647, +0.229, (+0.24%): Successfully saving its low of 93.107 of 14 june. And last made doji cross; lets wait for some confirmations for further clue.
Current trading range is 93.00-96.70
USDJPY: 137.07, +0.20, (+0.15%)
11th July big candle’s low i.e. 135.99 and before that 136.56 is now its support. Japan still just observing; US and Japan spoke to address this excess volatility jointly;
Trading range: 135.10-138-70
Notable Value points:
Dollar Index : 108.21, +0.14, (+0.13%)
US Bond Yield (10 Y) : 2.980 ,+0.022 , (+0.74%)
Gold : 1,725.60, +0.80, (+0.05%)
Brent Crude : 99.79, +0.30, (+0.30%)
SGX NIFTY : 16,128.80, +98.80, (+0.62%)
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